Tool

Kelly criterion

Optimal stake size for a known edge.

Win probability (p)55.4 %
Full Kelly stake6.30 % bankroll
Recommended stake$31.48
How to read this
Half-Kelly is the practical default

Full Kelly maximises long-run growth but accepts brutal short-term swings. Half-Kelly captures ~75 % of the growth at a fraction of the variance — what nearly every disciplined bettor uses.

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